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India vs China: big anniversaries

Posted by: Brian Dennehy
Tags: india, china, cia

 

Many of you will already know that Indian partition took place 70 years ago on 15th August. Less well known is that tomorrow (1st August) marks the 90th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army in China.

It’s a good time to put them head to head, so below are some key facts.

These two are the giants of the region, and will be at the heart of this century, The Asian Century.

In population terms, they dwarf the US.  The GDP per head figure provides a fascinating glimpse of the upside potential.  Indian GDP would have to grow 8.5x to reach the heights of the US.

That there has already been considerable growth is reflected in the performance of the best Chinese and Indian funds.  They are up in excess of 200%, compared to 205% for the main US stock market, and way in excess of the UK FTSE 100, up 73%.  We fully expect these differentials between East and West to persist for decades.

Last but not least, obesity is a vivid measure of the potential!

FURTHER READING

 

Table 1

 

China

India

US

Best fund (last 10 years)

215%

276%

205%*

GDP per capita ($)

 14,600

 6,700

 57,300

Total population (bn)

 1.373

 1.267

 0.324

GDP real growth rate

6.70%

7.60%

1.60%

Obesity (% of adult population)

7.30%

4.70%

35.00%

 
*S&P 500 index
Performance data: 10 years to 28/7/17.  Statistics sourced from CIA World Factbook.  All data 2016 est. except for obesity (2014).  GDP per capita calculated on purchasing power parity basis.


Topic: Market commentary


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