Recent Posts

  • 2020 recession scare. Should you care? | Fri 13 Dec 2019

    Topic: Market commentary

    Never was it more true – all we have to fear is fear itself. A tweet here, a twitch there, and market confidence collapses. Add in a graph of an inverted yield curve and another podium spot for Greta Thunberg, and it’s the stuff of nightmares. Here I explore the recession nightmare.

    In the Summer there was a negative yield curve, and, as a result, markets braced for an instant recession. Do you know what a negative yield curve is? Don’t bother giving it too much thought. It is meant to be a recession indicator. It isn’t. And to the extent that it might be, occasionally, it doesn’t add any practical information on how to invest or whether to invest at all.
    [read more]

  • What will markets do in 2020? Welcome to "The Turbulent Twenties" | Fri 06 Dec 2019

    Topic: Market commentary

    The big event is upon us. Not the general election, but rather the end of a very strange decade, unique in so many ways – the first decade with no recession, unique over-valuation in the US stock market and bonds globally, a growing climate crisis, and a democratic structure in the Western world which is creaking badly at a time when “the 99%” are losing trust in our political structures. [read more]

  • Saxo Bank's Outrageous Predictions for 2020 | Fri 06 Dec 2019

    Topic: Market commentary

    Saxo Bank’s “10 Outrageous Predictions for 2020” obviously focus on unlikely events, but any one of which could cause considerable turbulence in markets.

    It is a warning for those investors inclined to believe in the status quo, and who don’t believe in “Black Swans” (on which see Investing fundamentals – will it be alright on the night?).

    Their theme is that the reign of disruption continues as global central banks and governments lose control. Investors must be ready for anything. [read more]

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