Recent Posts

Never was it more true – all we have to fear is fear itself. A tweet here, a twitch there, and market confidence collapses. Add in a graph of an inverted yield curve and another podium spot for Greta Thunberg, and it’s the stuff of nightmares. Here I explore the recession nightmare.

In the Summer there was a negative yield curve, and, as a result, markets braced for an instant recession. Do you know what a negative yield curve is? Don’t bother giving it too much thought. It is meant to be a recession indicator. It isn’t. And to the extent that it might be, occasionally, it doesn’t add any practical information on how to invest or whether to invest at all.
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The Dynamic Global Portfolio moves investors into the sectors with the most momentum. Here we review the portfolio and with review dates in December and June. Read on to find out about the great potential the Dynamic Global Portfolio creates for investors over the long-term. [read more]

In the first part of our Decade Review we reviewed our Trades of the Decade from 2009. In this instalment, we look at those sectors that shot the lights out over the last 10 years, and also shine a light on those at the bottom of the pile. [read more]

The big event is upon us. Not the general election, but rather the end of a very strange decade, unique in so many ways – the first decade with no recession, unique over-valuation in the US stock market and bonds globally, a growing climate crisis, and a democratic structure in the Western world which is creaking badly at a time when “the 99%” are losing trust in our political structures. [read more]

Saxo Bank’s “10 Outrageous Predictions for 2020” obviously focus on unlikely events, but any one of which could cause considerable turbulence in markets.

It is a warning for those investors inclined to believe in the status quo, and who don’t believe in “Black Swans” (on which see Investing fundamentals – will it be alright on the night?).

Their theme is that the reign of disruption continues as global central banks and governments lose control. Investors must be ready for anything. [read more]