In the teleconference earlier this week I suggested that the US stock market was within 1% of another significant peak, with falls of 25% to follow. During the course of this week a number of other interesting charts have come our way, highlighting the same risk – which I will share with you in a moment.
Has the bell just been rung for the top?
Well, the starting point is to define which top. Is it the end of the complete uptrend, bull market, since March 2009 (in which case falls could (would?) be 50%+. Or is it a lesser top? At least for now.
The distinction is obviously significant. Falls in excess of 50%, perhaps occurring over years, or a mere 25% fall over months, after which will be another profitable upswing. [read more]