What’s Hot, What’s Not: Red Hot, China Not [Fund Edition]

The hot funds are up in excess of 20% in a little over 2 months.  Will the momentum of these funds stick?  We are not convinced, hence “red” hot, red for warning and to proceed with caution.

The dud funds are dominated by China, though the falls are not too significant.  China is getting interesting.  You might have noticed that a few investment banks are forecasting double-digit gains for China in 2024.  We were surprised by their enthusiasm, but broadly agree with them.

What’s Hot

• UK and European commercial property funds were sure-fire winners if rate cuts could be assumed.  The charts for such funds are not as unequivocally positive…
• …on one reading they are about to roll over and sharply lower.  It’s the toss of a coin just now.
• The BG funds which were hammered from their peaks of 2021, falls ranging from 50-60%...
• …as with the property funds, the recent sideways and upward moves, some persisting since summer 2022, are at immediate risk of falling sharply lower.

What’s Not

• China dominates.  Chinese domestic investors are still not confident enough to buy, and more government incentives are needed…
• …Yet there is surprising support from some global investment banks to tuck away an exposure to China ahead of (certain?) Chinese government action.
• The other funds here are a bit anomalous, and not of great interest.

What’s Hot

What’s Not

Fund performance 26/10/2023 – 31/12/2023. Funds <50m in size and ETFs excluded from the above research.

NOTE

We do this blog to simply highlight short term trends. These are not recommendations.