Next week there will not be the usual Friday Note, and in the following week will be what I believe to be the most important webinar/seminar I have hosted in 40 years. In the last 2 months three events have come together which demand investors pay attention, exacerbated by one persistent problem:
· War, of course. It is early days.
· A huge leap forward in AI, with massive implications not just for your investing, but also for you personally and your family.
· Last but not least the final pieces are clearly falling into place for the end-of-cycle template set out by Ray Dalio back in 2019 – the tumultuous Stage 6 – and I must share the implications with you.
· All of this is made worse because I believe the great majority of my industry are totally unprepared. Very worrying when never before have so many individuals put their life savings in the hands of these firms – big on complacency and sales patter, but lacking any process to protect their clients.
We will send out the invitation next Friday, and it will be held the following week (week commencing 16th March). Do share the invitation with others when it arrives. These issues need to be aired with as many people as possible, whether managing their own investments, using an adviser, or just worried about the implications of all of this for their kids.
I thought this week we all deserve to start with some positivity, even a smile.
How about 45,964% growth and 14,145% growth?
Long term readers have already figured that the first number must be our Bonkers Portfolio. In recent times there have, understandably, been other priorities each Friday. But the performance of Bonkers in the last 6 months was particularly mad, up 107%. This is versus the FTSE World index, up just 13%, a 94% performance improvement in just 6 months.
Since inception in 1995 Bonkers has grown 45,964%, which is 32x the World index. For relatively new readers, you can see the update here, as well as how this portfolio is put together – it really couldn’t be simpler. Don’t do this at home! At least not with too much money. Nonetheless, no other portfolio provides such a stunning indication of the power of Momentum investing.
The 14,145% is the Dynamic Asia and EM Portfolio since launch in 1999, growth of 24x the MSCI Asia Pacific index. This was up 68.2% in the last 6 months. All of the details on the ins and outs are here. This Asia portfolio is obviously much more sober than Bonkers, and is worth considering as part of your portfolio.
Back to this week, Trump’s war of choice has dominated the week. The reasons are unknown, and the objective is a mystery. As anticipated two weeks ago (20th February) the best working assumption is that notable short term weakness in stock markets should be used as a buying opportunity e.g. if the US stock market gets down to support around 6400, this will probably be a signal to buy favoured markets globally, if not the US itself.
The possibility that the Iranians have the potential for a much more serious militarily response cannot be ignored, but the stop-loss is there to deal with that eventuality. Similarly with a middle ground involving a multi-month closure of the Straits Of Hormuz, and a rise in bond yields putting pressure on equities.
Oil is moving up. As reminded on 20th February, the opportunity in oil was clear in the last quarter of 2025 when there was a consensus of negativity (see 28th November).
The dollar is also moving up. On 30th January I highlighted the consensus that the dollar was heading even lower, while the chart was telling a very different story…
“the dollar is about to move sharply higher, something which almost no analysts expect.”
One “expert” was being interviewed on the radio early in the week and proclaimed gold a “safe haven” (Zzzzzz). In the real world gold is down nearly 5% since markets opened on Monday, and there has been extreme volatility as investors sought to take some of the huge profits made in the last 2 years, in gold and other metals. If the dollar continues to strengthen, a working assumption for now, it is also reasonable to expect gold to struggle, and take a well-earned breather.
All major stock markets are lower, Europe, Japan, and Brazil being worst at 6% off, and the UK outperforming a touch, again.
Moving to the more parochial, as soon as you see reference to “a group of respected economists” either turn the page, cover your ears, or presume the opposite will happen. In this case the headline was “Bank Of England could be forced to raise rates as oil and gas soar”. Hmmm. Rising energy prices put pressure on household spending and company costs, and thereby depress economic activity. Why would you raise interest rates and increase that pressure? Of course a sensible person wouldn’t, you would cut rates to counter the impact of cost pressures arising from conflict elsewhere in the world.
It would be different if wages were galloping higher, house prices were soaring, unemployment was very low, and economic exuberance was all pervasive. Interest rates would need to go up, stopping and reversing the party mood. None of that applies now, in fact the exact opposite.
UK interest rates will head lower. The potential is down to 2.75%, which admittedly is me being optimistic. If it doesn’t get down to that level it will likely be because the UK economy is in middling shape, rather than the doom peddled by too many in the media. Here are extracts from one fund manager report this week, who is engaging with the coal face every day and looking at the stats more even-handedly:
“Consumer confidence fell back slightly in February but remains higher than it was a year ago. Conversations with housebuilders also suggest that viewings and reservations have been getting steadily better week by week so far in 2026… Business confidence also continues to strengthen in the UK, which is reflected in the latest composite PMI reading of 53.9, suggesting a healthy rate of economic expansion… It is stronger than consensus expectations and more than the mainstream media suggests and is likely to be sustained by lower inflation and continued interest rate cuts… There is a probability that the MPC will pause rate cuts after a March cut given the economy is stronger than expected. This would, however, be a pause for good reasons.”
All positive and balanced stuff. They continue:
“Several government policies could be announced that would be materially positive e.g. a form of Help to Buy 2 in the new housing market. The main short-term risk is uncertainty around Starmer’s position as Prime Minister, and of course the situation in the Middle East.”
Look out next Friday for the invitation to my webinar the following week. I believe to be the most important webinar/seminar I have hosted in 40 years.Next week there will not be the usual Friday Note, and in the following week will be what I believe to be the most important webinar/seminar I have hosted in 40 years. In the last 2 months three events have come together which demand investors pay attention, exacerbated by one persistent problem:
· War, of course. It is early days.
· A huge leap forward in AI, with massive implications not just for your investing, but also for you personally and your family.
· Last but not least the final pieces are clearly falling into place for the end-of-cycle template set out by Ray Dalio back in 2019 – the tumultuous Stage 6 – and I must share the implications with you.
· All of this is made worse because I believe the great majority of my industry are totally unprepared. Very worrying when never before have so many individuals put their life savings in the hands of these firms – big on complacency and sales patter, but lacking any process to protect their clients.
We will send out the invitation next Friday, and it will be held the following week (week commencing 16th March). Do share the invitation with others when it arrives. These issues need to be aired with as many people as possible, whether managing their own investments, using an adviser, or just worried about the implications of all of this for their kids.
I thought this week we all deserve to start with some positivity, even a smile.
How about 45,964% growth and 14,145% growth?
Long term readers have already figured that the first number must be our Bonkers Portfolio. In recent times there have, understandably, been other priorities each Friday. But the performance of Bonkers in the last 6 months was particularly mad, up 107%. This is versus the FTSE World index, up just 13%, a 94% performance improvement in just 6 months.
Since inception in 1995 Bonkers has grown 45,964%, which is 32x the World index. For relatively new readers, you can see the update here, as well as how this portfolio is put together – it really couldn’t be simpler. Don’t do this at home! At least not with too much money. Nonetheless, no other portfolio provides such a stunning indication of the power of Momentum investing.
The 14,145% is the Dynamic Asia and EM Portfolio since launch in 1999, growth of 24x the MSCI Asia Pacific index. This was up 68.2% in the last 6 months. All of the details on the ins and outs are here. This Asia portfolio is obviously much more sober than Bonkers, and is worth considering as part of your portfolio.
Back to this week, Trump’s war of choice has dominated the week. The reasons are unknown, and the objective is a mystery. As anticipated two weeks ago (20th February) the best working assumption is that notable short term weakness in stock markets should be used as a buying opportunity e.g. if the US stock market gets down to support around 6400, this will probably be a signal to buy favoured markets globally, if not the US itself.
The possibility that the Iranians have the potential for a much more serious militarily response cannot be ignored, but the stop-loss is there to deal with that eventuality. Similarly with a middle ground involving a multi-month closure of the Straits Of Hormuz, and a rise in bond yields putting pressure on equities.
Oil is moving up. As reminded on 20th February, the opportunity in oil was clear in the last quarter of 2025 when there was a consensus of negativity (see 28th November).
The dollar is also moving up. On 30th January I highlighted the consensus that the dollar was heading even lower, while the chart was telling a very different story…
“the dollar is about to move sharply higher, something which almost no analysts expect.”
One “expert” was being interviewed on the radio early in the week and proclaimed gold a “safe haven” (Zzzzzz). In the real world gold is down nearly 5% since markets opened on Monday, and there has been extreme volatility as investors sought to take some of the huge profits made in the last 2 years, in gold and other metals. If the dollar continues to strengthen, a working assumption for now, it is also reasonable to expect gold to struggle, and take a well-earned breather.
All major stock markets are lower, Europe, Japan, and Brazil being worst at 6% off, and the UK outperforming a touch, again.
Moving to the more parochial, as soon as you see reference to “a group of respected economists” either turn the page, cover your ears, or presume the opposite will happen. In this case the headline was “Bank Of England could be forced to raise rates as oil and gas soar”. Hmmm. Rising energy prices put pressure on household spending and company costs, and thereby depress economic activity. Why would you raise interest rates and increase that pressure? Of course a sensible person wouldn’t, you would cut rates to counter the impact of cost pressures arising from conflict elsewhere in the world.
It would be different if wages were galloping higher, house prices were soaring, unemployment was very low, and economic exuberance was all pervasive. Interest rates would need to go up, stopping and reversing the party mood. None of that applies now, in fact the exact opposite.
UK interest rates will head lower. The potential is down to 2.75%, which admittedly is me being optimistic. If it doesn’t get down to that level it will likely be because the UK economy is in middling shape, rather than the doom peddled by too many in the media. Here are extracts from one fund manager report this week, who is engaging with the coal face every day and looking at the stats more even-handedly:
“Consumer confidence fell back slightly in February but remains higher than it was a year ago. Conversations with housebuilders also suggest that viewings and reservations have been getting steadily better week by week so far in 2026… Business confidence also continues to strengthen in the UK, which is reflected in the latest composite PMI reading of 53.9, suggesting a healthy rate of economic expansion… It is stronger than consensus expectations and more than the mainstream media suggests and is likely to be sustained by lower inflation and continued interest rate cuts… There is a probability that the MPC will pause rate cuts after a March cut given the economy is stronger than expected. This would, however, be a pause for good reasons.”
All positive and balanced stuff. They continue:
“Several government policies could be announced that would be materially positive e.g. a form of Help to Buy 2 in the new housing market. The main short-term risk is uncertainty around Starmer’s position as Prime Minister, and of course the situation in the Middle East.”
Look out next Friday for the invitation to my webinar the following week. I believe to be the most important webinar/seminar I have hosted in 40 years.