As the pressure on the oil price eased a little, Japan, China, US tech, and India had an excellent week, up 4-6%, all at new peaks for 2026. The S&P 500 also hit a new all-time high…
…On 27th March 2026 I updated the roadmap for the S&P 500, first set out in October 2025, and said that if it remained valid, this pivotal US stock market index “should be turning around and up now, or very soon” and went on:
· There is clear support around 6400-6500 from which the S&P can bounce to a new all-time high, to end the whole move up from 7th April 2025.
· The upside target is a minimum of 7100, though this feels a bit short, so don’t be surprised by a bigger move.
· The implication is a Summer peak in the S&P, followed by a not untypical Autumn fall.
· If this analysis holds water, it creates a window within which a range of asset classes can bounce, and outperform the S&P in doing so. These were set out in the webinar.
The correction ended at 6343 on 30th March 2026, 0.9% below 6400 support, and bounced instantly and sharply – strong index support often acts like a trampoline, flexing a little on the downside, and then it springs upwards, in this case to new highs.
For new readers, it is very important to have a view on where the S&P is heading. It is not prediction. It is merely what I call a “most likely” analysis, a road map, of what lies ahead, based on decades of experience doing the same. Myself and the DW discretionary portfolio team also have to build in the possibility of being wrong, and you should do the same if you are self-managing. The ultimate tool allowing for this is our stop-loss.
Remember, we are not trying to predict the market when we apply a stop-loss. We are merely trying to eliminate the possibility of unacceptably deep and prolonged losses. (On this point, if you haven’t yet listened to the recent webinar do give it a go, particularly if you are using a wealth manager or contemplating doing so. There is a very serious hidden risk which they will not share with you, but which could devastate your life plans. Most are totally unprepared and complacent as to their client’s best interests.)
What next for this pivotal US stock market, and other financial markets around the world?
For the US there might only be 1-2% of upside left. Whether it’s that or a bit more, once this move up from 30th March 2026 is complete, it could be a multi-year peak, and it is that of which we must be wary as it implies a lot of downside. If an important peak does lie just ahead, which is our “most likely” analysis, support can be observed at 5000, 3700, and 2300 i.e. falls of 30%, 52%, and 68% respectively. The most significant support appears to be around 3700, implying a fall of 52%.
Turning to other markets, while the S&P 500 has hit new highs, the UK stock market index most exposed to our domestic economy is still off its peak i.e. the FTSE 250 has another 6% upside before a new high. The FTSE 100, populated by the big companies with a global reach, has to rise just over 3% to reach new high ground, though the pattern suggests greater potential.
Falls of the magnitude of 52% in the US will make a tough environment for the rest of the world’s stock markets. But that isn’t going to happen overnight, and there may well be some more upside to enjoy first, so that’s what we will do.
Turning to commodities, since the war against Iran began (28th February) only oil is making notable profits e.g. crude oil ETFs up in excess of 30%. Some broadly-based energy funds have gained 4-5%. Metals and miners are down. Gold miners fell 30% at worst and have now regained half of that, but the immediate outlook is mixed at best, with the gold correction appearing to have some way to go. Why? Gold is an emotional investment, and in the US it appears “mom and pop” investors are still aggressively buying the dip, which is not what happens at a significant low. When such a correction is over the latecomers will be smashed, and only sell in volume at the bottom. It was ever thus.
Uranium remains of interest, as per 20th February note:
Uranium is in a good place, and as we said back in November “interest is subdued at best…there is a clear swell in long term demand, and a quiet erosion of expected supply”. Uranium hasn’t suffered the extreme volatility of gold and silver because it is an energy play – nuclear energy.
Global X Uranium appears to be on the verge of breaking higher. It might not have the extreme volatility of gold and silver, but you must still take care with this one.
On every count explored above, it is only fair to admit that any attempt at rational analysis can quickly have the chair kicked away from under it. Trump’s sanity is now the subject of a call from the Democrats for a commission to remove Trump under the 25th Amendment, the latest nail in the case being his self-portrayal as Jesus.
It is easy to visualise conflict in the Near East escalating. Nonetheless, at the other extreme it is also possible that Trump might pull some crazy economic stimulus out of the hat, with an eye on the November elections, and encourage a final spike upwards in the US stock market fuelled by those who still believe in American Exceptionalism.
With that fog of uncertainty in mind, we all have to be prepared for a range of possibilities, irrespective of what four decades of (sane) experience suggests should be the “most likely” outcome in the weeks and months ahead.
Last word to The Guardian’s Rebecca Shaw:
“I thought hell would freeze over before I agreed with the Pope.
But in a world riven by cruelty, that day has finally come."